When the Western Athletic Conference started play for the women's basketball teams, I thought the UT Arlington squad was a top half, but not top third team overall. I believed they might pull off an upset or two, but that there would be a clear hierarchy for the teams.
But as of this post, the team sits in second place with a solid 7-1 record halfway through the conference season, one game behind preseason favorite Grand Canyon, who, as much as it pains me to give this private (not) not-for-profit private school diploma mill the top spot, was my pick to win the regular season.
Now, there's a bit of a catch. The Mavericks have had an easy start to the schedule. Of the top four teams, UTA notwithstanding, UTA is only 1-1 so far. Against the bottom half, the remaining four teams, UTA is 6-0.
Prior to the start, I thought GCU, California Baptist and Abilene Christian were the top three. I penciled in UTA at fourth. UTA hasn't played two of those teams and did beat ACU in College Park Center. CBU had a couple of injury issues during non-conference but are starting to get back to full force. ACU is just struggling and I'm not sure as to why. Utah Valley has been the early surprise and given the Mavs there only loss in Orem, Utah.
The key to the early conference success is the same formula: graduate student forward Avery Brittingham and graduate transfer forward Koi Love. They land in the top ten in the WAC in most categories. Love is second in scoring and field goal percentage, third in steals, fifth in blocks, tied for fifth in rebounds, sixth in defensive rebounds, seventh in assists and offensive rebounds as well as tenth in assist to turnover ratio.
Meanwhile A.B. is first in rebounding and defensive rebounds, second in offensive rebounds, third in assist-to-turnover ratio, fourth in assists, sixth in free throw percentage, seventh in blocks and field goal percentage, eighth in scoring and, just outside the top ten, eleventh in steals. Incredibly, despite all the above, she is only 14th in minutes played.
Only sophomore forward Miraya Perkins, second in free throw percentage and senior guard Taliyah Clark, eighth in made three-pointers appear in any other of the top ten statistical categories. Senior forward Zoe Nelson is just outside in a tie for twelfth in blocked shots,
The only stat Brittingham and Young did not appear in a broad sense relates to three-point shooting, which is still UTA's weakness. UTA is last in total three-points field goals per game, average per game and three-point percentage. And sadly, it isn't close. The eighth-place team ahead of UTA in each category has: 35 more three-pointers, .012 percentage worse, and have taken 118 more attempts. That last one may actually be a positive given the lack of production. in that stat.
Simply put, UTA pounds the ball down low with their two stars and when that isn't available, looks elsewhere.
Going back to the individuals, UTA is the only team with two players in so many categories together. I mentioned earlier in the season that if UTA figures out the guard play, they will elevate their performance to another level. While it hasn't happened on a large scale, a couple of names appear in the conference-only stats that aren't in the overall stats, meaning their play lately overall has been better.
In all WAC games, Junior guard Nya Threatt is sixth in assist-to-turnover ratio and tied for eleventh in assists. Senior guard Aspen Thornton is first in free throw percentage while Perkins is second. While not a guard, Nelson is eighth in blocks.
Obviously, if UTA hasn't tipped off against the tougher conference opponents, the schedule is about to get a bit tougher. This week, UTA hosts Utah Valley on Thursday before Seattle stops by on Saturday. Then, four of the last six games are against GCU and CBU. The other two feature ACU, which I believe is one of the better WAC teams despite the record, and Tarleton, which has been the other surprise team in the WAC, both games on the road.
There are several team stats that stick out to me that give the Mavs a fighting chance the remainder of the way. UTA is first in conference in scoring offense, offensive boards, assists and in the three-point defense, second in scoring margin, blocked shots and free throw percentage, while they are third in field goal defense, steals and rebounding margin.
With a two-game lead on two third-place teams, including a win against Tarleton, UTA looks to have a good shot to be in that top third. Seeing as GCU is in the lead in the standings and the teams have two games to play, any chance at a conference title goes through the Antelopes.
The stat matchups look intriguing on paper. GCU is only fourth in defensive rebounding. Given UTA's prowess on the offensive boards, second chance points could feature big for UTA. UTA has a positive rebounding margin of two in conference games. GCU is actually a negative one.
UTA is first in scoring offense, GCU is first in scoring defense. GCU is second in scoring offense, UTA is fourth in scoring defense. The top teams in the WAC in scoring margin are these two. Something will have to give.
A look at the schedule shows GCU is 3-0 against UVU and Tarleton, having swept the Wolverines. GCU also hasn't played CBU, so each stat is very similar to equal for both schools as the opponents are near equal.
Those games get underway a week from Saturday, and UTA's focus will surely be on this week's opponents. Seattle comes in winless in conference while UVU is 5-3.
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