Now, after this past week's performance, two road games in the WAC, the Mavericks again embarked on a losing streak, plunging two games below .500 and now sit sixth in the standings.
The first loss wasn't unexpected, but to say the score differential was disappointing is an understatement. The Utah Valley Wolverines are in first at this point by 1.5 games and have a 4-1 record against teams sitting in second through fourth. They are in the driver's seat to say the least.
But they are a great example of where UTA could be, as the Mavs had a late, multi-possession lead in regulation and ultimately a tie game in overtime with single-digit seconds remaining. They can compete with anyone in the conference. But in Orem on Thursday, that did not seem to be the case.
UTA never had a lead in a 94-73 loss. Early in the first half, they were within striking distance, but UVU used many small runs and one big 13-4 to end the first half to build a 43-28 halftime lead. UTA gave up 51 points in the second and the deficit was 29 with a little more than two minutes remaining, so it never really was close.
In Seattle, the game was quite different. There were eight lead changes, though only two occurred in the second half. UTA trailed by one three times in the second, the first at the 19:23 mark, another at the 18:06, a third at 17:15 and the fourth at 10:42. The last one cut into a 12-point Redhawk lead. After that, Seattle used a 10-2 run for another large lead around the six-minute mark. The Mav defense buckled down and UTA went six of nine from the field. Sophomore guard Kade Douglass was two of three in that stretch, with both makes from three and he grabbed an offensive board on his lone miss. Graduate transfer Forward Lance Ware tied it with a dunk under two minutes. Two possessions later in a tie game, graduate guard Darius Burford hit a three-pointer to give UTA a lead for the first time in the half. Unfortunately, 26 seconds was too much time as Seattle then went down the floor fast and grabbed a layup. Then, both Burford and Ware missed the front end of one and ones. Ware grabbed the rebound on Burford's miss, but the old demon of free throw shooting was prevalent, keeping the lead at one. Seattle's redshirt junior guard John Christofilis then hit a wide-open three as time expired for the Redhawk win.
The loss was really due to two themes, missed free throws and defensive three-point shots. All season, those two themes have been really hurting UTA.
The Mavs are eighth of nine WAC teams in free throw percentage at .689. Utah Tech is last at .674. Seventh place is .691 belonging to Utah Valley. Those are the only teams under 70 percent. In conference play, the Mavs are shooting 50 points worse, good for last.
Breaking that down further, Ware leads the team in free throw attempts (122), followed by junior guard Brody Robinson (89), junior forward Raysean Seamster (86), junior forward Jaxson Ellingsworth (45) and Burford (40). Those top five are the only ones with 40 or more.
Now of those five, the free throw percentage is: Robinson (.831), Ellingsworth (.778), Ware (.598), Burford (.550) and Seamster (.488). These five account for 76 percent of the team's charity stripe shots. Four of those five are in the top five in minutes played. The one guy not in the top five in minutes has the second-best percentage on that list. So if a team is trailing late by a slim margin, there are a lot of options to choose from by guys who are going to roughly miss as many as they are going to make.
We saw that against Abilene Christian late. The Wildcats were trailing and UTA had the ball towards the end of overtime. There was plenty of time to try for a turnover or ten-second violation. Seamster inbounded to graduate guard Jayden Wells. As he was trapped, he quickly threw to Seamster as he left the baseline. Instead of continuing to try for a turnover, ACU intentionally fouled Seamster as he was attempting to pass out. In the scenario, it worked for UTA as Seamster made both for a three-point lead. But the clear distinction between the good free throw shooters and poor ones are causing problems.
Defensively, UTA has given up more three-point shots than every WAC school save Tarleton State at 185. Tarleton has given up ten more, the only other outlier in this category. If UTA does not allow another three-point shot, Seattle U, the next closest team, would have to give up 21 to tie UTA. Whatever they are doing on defense, it is leaving the outside line open.
Like free throw percentage, three-point shots allowed gets drastically worse when only conference games against like opponents are filtered. UTA is last with 91 given up. The heart-breaking stat? The two teams directly above UTA are tied for seventh at 61. UTA has given up fifty percent more three-point shots then the next worse team. Ouch!
Turnovers are a bug too, but it has been inconsistent. However, a trend of fewer turnovers in wins than in losses show that when they can't get it under control and maintain possession, the results are going to be rough the Mavs.
Of UTA's six losses, four were less than two possessions in the final score. Of UTA's four wins, three were less than two possessions. UTA has to start making more free throws and give up less threes. The rest of the season will be long if they don't.
The lone solace from this week's results is that the Mavs are not playing at full health as a bug, flu, cold or other similar illness has ripped through the team. That has occurred for several games and hopefully is about to come to a close.
Wells is one large example as the team's leader in points scored was out both games. While I generally avoid who didn't play in specific games, I reference this one because Douglass received quite a bit more playing time last week as he started both games.
In the 21-point loss to UVU, Douglass scored 20 and grabbed five boards. He's known for his range, but only 12 came from behind the arc. It was similar against Seattle as he again led the team, this time with 15. As mentioned, his threes were key in the comeback to regain the lead late. He also grabbed six boards. The total week was 35 points, 11 rebounds and 9-12 from three in two games! Were any of those games wins, that would be conference player of the week type numbers.
I have wondered why Douglass doesn't get more playing time. He's always shot well. WACHoopsNation had him penciled in as the freshman of the year last year early in the year. When conference play started, his minutes declined.
This year, at the start of the week, he was ninth in minutes played. Maybe there is something intangible I'm not seeing, like his defense is subpar, he's out of position on offense or he takes shots against the game plan, something like that. Maybe his leadership was questioned. Either way, after this past week, he might have increased his playing time. He's also perfect at the free throw line in 11 attempts.
This week will be a rough test. The second and third place WAC teams come to Arlington as California Baptist tips off at 4 pm on Thursday. Then on Saturday, the long awaited, though muted game due to UTA's record, rematch with Grand Canyon commences as the Mavs and 'lopes tip off at 2 pm.
College Park Center has been kind to UTA this year, as they are 7-2. But this will be a much tougher test. And we know the free throw and three-point defense will be the key.
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