I was walking into work today and I realized I didn't do a preseason post to the upcoming men's and women's basketball teams. Truth is, no one has any clue how the season will shake up. I have seen pundits, insiders and other experts have wildly different polls. So I'll give the Western Athletic Conference's opinion only and basically leave it at that.
I have seen these knowledgeable people have UT Arlington as high as number one on the men's side and as low as number six out of seven possible teams. With such a high turnover in roster, it is essentially a rebuild every year for most teams. I don't know the impact that has on support. On the one hand, UTA fans knew the Mavericks were going to be really good in the mid teens. Fans showed up. On the other, if you don't know and the team is rough, do you still go to games early? I don't know. It's just an academic argument.
But as it is, for the men, the WAC coaches poll is as follows:
1) California Baptist with 33 points and five first place votes,
2) Utah Valley, 29 and one,
3) Abilene Christian, 27,
4) UTA, 22 and one,
5) Tarleton State, 19,
6) Utah Tech, nine,
7) Southern Utah, eight.
A cursory glance shows wildly different opinions among the coaches, probably the most knowledgeable of the experts out there. A coach cannot vote for their own team, making a first-place vote worth six points, a second notches five and so on. That means the most points a team can tally is 36 points. With five first-place votes, someone voted CBU fourth out of six in their poll.
The defending champs in Utah Valley were first in one poll and likely second or third in every other one. Without any first place votes, ACU likely was second or third in every list.
There's a clear delineation between the top three, the middle two and the bottom two as far as expectations. CBU leads UVU by four points and ACU by six. UTA and Tarleton are separated by three points and neither UT nor SUU notched double digits.
UTA likely received less support than Tarleton outside of the one voter who had them first. The average of their points once the first is subtracted is between fifth and sixth place.
Were I to do a poll, I'd have CBU first based on an experienced star, a graduate senior returning in Dom Daniels Jr. There's a couple more pieces that were added that compliment him. Based on the known, no other school has it better. There could be an unknown star in the mix but you can't plan on that.
Utah Valley would have been my second-place vote based on what they did last year. No more, no less.
After that, I'd assign a team a number on the dice and roll it.
The men opened the season with a 91-40 win over the NAIA's North Texas-Dallas Jaguars. I have a hard time getting excited about these games. If UTA has to have the non-DI and in this case, non-NCAA, I'm glad they start the season to count as another tune-up before non-conference play against Division I starts.
As for the women, there's just as much an unknown, though they don't have the roster turnover as the men.
The coaches voted for the following:
1) ACU, 32 with two first place votes,
2) CBU, 31 and four,
3) UTA 25 and one,
4) UVU, 23,
5) TSU, 18,
6) UT, 12,
7) SUU, six.
There are two things that stick out to me. The first, everyone thinks SUU is the worst team in the WAC. You rarely ever see that.
Second, ACU is picked one for the same reason as the CBU men. Payton Hull returns and was really good last year. CBU has Khloe Lemon, who is also good and returns. But, CBU had more first place votes. That means some coaches out there don't think CBU will do very well.
Other than that, there is a dice roll here as well. UTA had a lot of roster turnover and if I'm hearing things right, has a more talented roster top to bottom than last year. Nia Threatt does not get the spotlight but is expected to provide her guiding hand at the point guard position to a plethora of new faces. Four other Mavericks return to Arlington.
The ladies open their season tonight at Houston. Tip off is slated for 6:30 pm.
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