Postseason Baseball

The UT Arlington Mavericks start the Western Athletic Conference Tournament on Tuesday. This may be one of the hardest conference tournaments that UTA has participated in to handicap as UTA can play with anyone but has proven they can lose to anyone as well.

I'll start with how they got there. Going into the last two conference series of the year, UTA was on track to really move up in the standings. They were facing the two teams at the bottom of the WAC in Utah Tech on the road and Seattle at home. Sadly, they lost both series, but didn't get swept. Had they won both series, but not swept, they'd be in a tie for third place and have a first round bye. Instead, they are in sole possession of seventh place.

Against Seattle, they lost by scores of 2-6 and 5-10. I've noted a few times this year that UTA specializes in losses of three runs or less. I haven't determined if I'd rather have the Mavs lose to the only team not to make the conference tournament by larger or smaller margins. A loss is a loss, but it would have been nice to see a little more fight. The Mavs won on senior day 8-1.

To recap, UTA has a 19-31 record. Nine losses, roughly 29 percent of their total losses, are by one run. Five losses are by two runs and three L's are by three runs. Over half of the losses were a base hit or home run away from a different outcome. But when they win, it is by a large margin. 11 of the 19 wins are by five runs or more.

So either UTA wins big or they lose close. They are a talented team. They are one or two players from a 30-win team. For example, if infielder Ryan Black hadn't left in the transfer portal for Georgia, where would UTA be? He had 134 hits, 98 RBI and 90 runs the last two years. He played in only half the games with the Bulldogs.

UTA is certainly capable of winning the tournament. Other than Abilene Christian, UTA beat everyone in the WAC at least once. Other than Utah Valley and Tarleton State, they have also lost to everyone at least once.

Speaking of Tarleton State, UTA opens the tournament in Mesa, Arizona against the Texans. TSU owns the sixth seed after sweeping Grand Canyon to end the year. They are flying high and riding momentum. They won the tournament last year as the fifth seed, so they aren't too far off last year's pace.

On April 11-13, UTA swept the series 4-2, 13-6 and 14-13 in ten innings in Stephenville. Day one starter sophomore Caylon Dygert went 7.0 innings pitched and gave up two earned runs. Playing the designated hitter, Junior Xavier Melendez hit a two-RBI homer in the eighth inning for the win.

In game two Sophomore pitcher Nicholas Robb went six innings deep giving up four runs. The Mavs scored four in the sixth inning to break open a 4-4 tie on a three-run homer from senior catcher Parker Airhart and another solo shot from freshman second baseman Cade Dodson.

In game three, the Mavs scored eight in the sixth inning, squandered the lead as Tarleton scored six over the final two frames, then the Mavs earned an RPI-single from Freshman shortstop Austin Phillips in the 10th for a wild, high-scoring win. Game three starter Joe Steeber pitched well enough to win, 5.0 innings and three runs, but three relievers gave up a combined ten runs before Senior reliever Jack Hagan pitched a scoreless tenth for the save.

As far as within the WAC, UTA is eighth in batting average, seventh in runs scored, eighth in hits, seventh in RBI, eighth in doubles, seventh in home runs and ninth in walks drawn. Catch the theme there? Offense is not a strength.

Pitching wise, they are better. They are third in ERA, but 5.97 is still very high. In other stat lines, it is underwhelming: last in opposing batting average, last in strikeouts, last in wins, first in losses, fifth in hits allowed, third in runs allowed, issued the fewest walks, tied for third in wild pitches and gave up the fewest home runs.

Defensively, the Mavs are seventh in fielding percentage, last in putouts, second in assists, had the second most errors, fifth in double plays turned, most stolen bases given up, second most caught stealing and sixth in passed balls.

Recap, if UTA locates their pitches, puts the ball in play and limits errors, they have a chance, especially early on.

I'm always the cynicist, but that old saying that it is hard to beat a team three times holds true here, though that usually refers to basketball. Four times is even harder. Coupled with the fact that the first two games are between the fifth through eighth seeds and are single-elimination, and it is not hard to see UTA falling. That's what happened last year.

UTA will face Junior pitcher Brian Panneton. He is 6-3 with a 3.24 ERA. His wins are tied for third most in the conference. His ERA is good for third overall. Dygert, at 6-4 with a 4.25 ERA, will oppose him. He's also tied for third in wins, one of five total players at that mark and is eleventh in ERA.

First pitch is set for 2 pm Central at Hohokam Stadium. The winner advances to play Utah Valley at 2 pm the next day. The loser is done for the year.