I'll start with the series' so far this year. Between both conference and non-conference series, UTA has played eight to this point. All but a weather shortened two-game set against Oklahoma State saw three games played. The good news, the Mavericks have not been swept to this point in three full games. However, UTA hasn't earned a sweep either.
UTA has won two series of the eight, the first against UT San Antonio on the road to open the year and the second occurred at Clay Gould against Little Rock in the middle of March. In addition to OSU, UTA has lost to Houston, Louisiana-Monroe, Sacramento State, California Baptist, and Lamar.
To add insult to injury, UTA is 1-5 in midweek games. Sam Houston State, Oklahoma, Texas-Austin, Baylor and a ranked Dallas Baptist account for the five losses. Three were to ranked teams. UTA stopped the streak on Tuesday against TCU. It took April for the Mavs to see their first non-weekend win.
The mid-week games are a sore spot for me because I remember a time when UTA was very competitive against the midweek gauntlet. In UTA's last NCAA Tournament year, they won two-thirds of their games against the Big 12. They took that success to the Baylor Regional and a third seed, the highest in program history.
Now, it seems like it is just playing time. For example, Senior pitcher Caden Noah pitched a scoreless first inning to open the Texas-Austin game. He didn't pitch another inning. No player pitched more than two innings. Seven pitchers total, the furthest went 2.0 innings, next highest was 1.1, four pitched 1.0 and one was relieved after 0.2. For a team that is sixth out of nine teams in the Western Athletic Conference in ERA, UTA doesn't have the depth at pitcher to employ that strategy.
The Sam Houston loss is a great microcosm of the problem as I see it. Sam Houston scored seven runs in the fourth inning on their way to a 9-7 win over the Mavericks at Clay Gould Ballpark. The Mavs starter, Junior Anthony Garcia, went an inning with no runs given up. Same thing for Senior Aaron Calhoun who cleared the second with two in scoring position. After a scoreless third, Senior lefty Cade McGlade was the first pitcher to come out for a another inning. After McClade issued a walk and a hit batter, Freshman Hayes Melville committed an error, hit a batter and walked another before he was relieved by Junior Zac Colletti to get the three outs. For the last five innings, UTA trotted out four more pitchers. Only three of the nine pitchers in that game gave up an earned run. But instead of allowing a starter to pitch past the first, despite a scoreless, hitless inning, he's relieved already.
Now maybe there isn't a long reliever who can pitch five to six innings in the middle of the week. But I know what is happening now is not working.
That formula was modified slightly in the TCU win, as the starter and his reliever went two innings each, but everyone else went 1.0. It worked against a 25-9 TCU, but that certainly has been the exception this season.
The thing is, many of the losses are close. At 10-19, the record looks bad but could easily be .500 or better with a couple of breaks. Three losses are by three runs, two by two and five by a solo run. The most recent weekend, a road trip to Lamar, UTA drew even with the Cardinals in terms of runs scored overall, but lost the series 1-2.
In recent years, the offense has been stuck in gear. There are signs of life in 2025 as three Mavericks are hitting above .300, led by Junior first baseman Tyce Armstrong's .323. He also has a team leading five home runs and 21 Runs Batted In. There is room for improvement though as the Mavs are last in every offensive statistical category in the WAC. However, UTA has played a minimum of three games less than every other team in the conference.
As alluded to earlier, the pitching is better than the offense, but not outstanding. Sitting at sixth in ERA in the WAC, they have some bright spots. UTA is third in walks issued, only ten behind the leader. The pitching staff is also third in home runs given up. They have hit the least number of batters in the conference. They also lead the conference in ground balls per game, a great stat for pitchers. If the Mavs played an even amount of games, the position in the rankings for those stats could change, but not drastically. Translation, UTA makes the offense put the ball in play.
That puts onus on the defense to get outs. UTA sits at sixth in fielding percentage. However, two stats stick out to me. The Mavs have turned 29 double plays, one behind the leader. At 336 assists, the Mavs are second in the WAC. Unlike pitching, playing in three to five more games would likely put UTA in the number one position for both.
Sophomore pitcher Caylon Dygert is the number one starter. He sits at 3-3 with a 5.40 ERA. In addition to wins, he leads the staff in innings pitched with 36.2. Sophomore pitcher Nicholas Robb has been the number two consistently. He has been on the bad end of the offensive output, leading to a 1-3 record, but a staff best 3.89 ERA. He is also the only pitcher with a sub four ERA to this point. Senior Joe Steeber has been the third starter for most of the season and sports a 2-2 record with a 4.41 ERA.
With a better offensive output, the likelihood is a better record for pitching too. However, the bullpen has been the main culprit. With no pitchers with an ERA below three or four and only three pitchers with a sub five ERA, the choices are not hard when it comes time to relieve a starter. Of the 19 losses, UTA had a lead entering the seventh inning or later in three of them. Another six games saw a tied contest entering the seventh or later. Neither the conference nor the team itself tracks blown saves, but I'd suspect UTA would be too high on the list.
All this leads me to believe UTA is on the cusp of being a good team. In the post portal era, UTA is likely going to lose a piece or two from previous teams, though the exodus isn't as high paced as it is in basketball. Maybe UTA could be better in the record if someone like middle infielder Ryan Black hadn't transferred to Georgia. Out of 35 games played for the Bulldogs team, he's played in 21, started 16 and is hitting .318 with six home runs and 11 RBI. He might be a cautionary tale as he started every game as a freshman and sophomore here and certainly would be an everyday starter again.
But the reality is the NCAA I knew as a student and fan for two plus decades is not the NCAA now. This is the reality for schools in UTA's peer group. At 2-4 in WAC play, UTA sits in roughly the same spot as they did in most of the stat categories, seventh. They have a chance to move up this weekend with a trip a few counties over to Stephenville with a date against Tarleton State. The Texans are 3-3 and are a very similar team to UTA.
I believe this weekend will be a good indication of where this team is heading for the final two months of the regular season. The three-game series starts on Friday at six.
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