Monday, November 25, 2024

Hoops at the Start Line

 It has been an interesting start to the 2024/25 basketball season for both the men and women. As it stands, basketball for either gender may be the hardest sports to determine how they will fare when evaluating the team in the offseason as well as the early portion of the non-conference season. The transfer portal just decimates rosters and creates a turnover unprecedented in the history of the NCAA.

I have been watching the games, wondering how to evaluate both of them. I don't want the appearance of ignoring either squad, so I'll just dive into the UT Arlington men's basketball team and follow one for the women soon. I'm going to try a different style with them and see which I like.

The men have faced two non-Division I teams at home, easily one of the ten best teams not in a Power 5 conference and two DI road games. I challenge anyone to look at those factors and come to a conclusion about a team.

In the home opener, UTA defeated North Texas - Dallas 90-55. There were moments where I wondered when the offense was going to score. With less than three minutes to halftime, the Mavericks held a single-digit lead. The offense found their gear with a good spurt, specifically a 16-0 run, to go to halftime with a 23-point lead. They cruised in the second half for the win. Trying a new combination of players likely contributed to that stretch.

Unless Brandyn Talbot or Cade Douglass' names are called, everyone is a transfer. Graduate student guard Jaden Wells led all scorers with 22. Junior forward Raysean Seamster added 19, graduate senior Diante Smith chipped in 11 and junior forward Jaxon Ellingsworth capped double digit scoring at 10. Senior forward Troy Hupstead just missed a double-double by a point, nine and 11 rebounds.

The following game was homecoming and Louisiana Tech came to College Park Center as part of the WAC/CUSA scheduling agreement. It was clear that the Bulldogs were clearly the better team in a 92-77 UTA loss. The Mavs came out on fire and prompted an early La Tech timeout. After that, La Tech proved they were the better team.

La Tech took the first lead seven and a half minutes in. UTA briefly retook the lead in the ensuing minute as both Universities exchanged the lead a couple of times before LTU with a little more than ten minutes remaining in the first half. In what's an early trend on the season, they gave up a 12-3 run to turn a close game into a double-digit deficit.

In what is another early season trend, four Mavs scored in double figures with Hupstead leading the way at 20, Wells with 17, Seamster notching 14 and Smith at ten. Rebounding was even at 35. Louisiana Tech shot 26 free throws, making 20 compared to 12 of 17 for UTA. The Maverick defense allowed a 51 percent field goal percentage.

The first road game of the year followed as UTA went Los Angeles, California and faced the Trojans of Southern California. It looked like the game would get out of hand as USC built a 12 point lead within the first five minutes. However, Wells went on a spree, scoring 14 of the Mavericks 16 points in that stretch to tie the game. The Mavericks gave up another run as USC pushed the leads to 12 before going into the locker rooms with a 51-42 score.

After another double-digit deficit, UTA traded points at a near 2-1 pace to gain the lead near the 12-minute mark. They both traded points with neither team getting a lead beyond three for most of the last 12 minutes. In the end, USC made the clutch shots and UTA did not and another loss for UTA, this one 98-95.

Wells came up big with 27 points. Four other Mavs were above double Digits: Ellingsworth - 19, Seamster - 15, Douglass - 12 and guard Brody Robinson with ten. The free throws were more even for this game as USC shot 27 to UTA's 23. UTA even outrebounded the Trojans, 27-23.

The Mavs came back to Arlington against Tyler-based Texas College. A consistent effort saw a Mav win, 96-69. Six players hit double figures, Wells - 16, Talbot - 15, Robinson - 14, Ellingsworth - 13 and Burford and Hupstead with 12. 

The final game to this point was a road trip in Springfield, Missouri. In a game similar to the USC game, the Mavericks took a 37-34 lead at halftime over Missouri State. However, the Bears were able to make a good run in the second half. With nine and a half minutes left, the game was tied. The MoSt effort, coupled with a cold shooting stretch for UTA, sent the tie game to a multiple possession deficit. 

UTA's defense played better than their season output, but in the end, the offense couldn't keep up. Missouri State pushed the lead to double digits with one minute left, leading to the 78-68 final score. 

Only seven Mavericks scored, but four were in double digits. Ellingsworth had a game-high 19 while Burford and Seamster had 14. UTA did outrebounded the Bears 26-23. But in a style of play that I'm really starting to dislike at a high level, Mo State is a lot like Grand Canyon. They build an offense around fouls. They drive, take poor shots from a fundamental standpoint with the sole purpose or intention to draw fouls. While that element has always been present in basketball, it wasn't the featured or primary way to score like teams are doing more and more. 

The Bears were 29 of 34 from the free throw line. Meanwhile, UTA was 13 of 19. The foul disparity was 23-17. While six isn't terribly lopsided, 15 free throws are. I'm going on a little bit of a rant, but the NCAA is turning into a free throw contest with an occasional field goal.  The Bears got over a third of their points from the line. 29 free throw makes versus 22 field goal makes. Watching an offender drive and try to make a skilled shot is far more entertaining than one who drives, initiates contact, throws the ball in the direction of the hoop and then stands still shooting two. That's what I'm seeing more and more. 

Thankfully, the UTA offense has been scoring the "traditional" way so far and putting up a decent amount of points. However, as shown in that last game, the offense going cold leads to a tough mountain to climb. As for the free-throw-based offenses the Mavs will play, I don't have an answer. So many fouls looked like the defender was in a good position, but a whistle was blown anyway. Others were ticky tack and had no impact on the shot, offender or shot selection. It just punishes defenses for for doing anything but standing still.

I've been impressed early by a couple of Mavs. Wells, other than Missouri State, has been scoring at a high pace, putting in 17.6 points to this point. Ellingsworth has shown to be a force underneath. He's been getting defenders in bad spots underneath and powering the Mavs to points. Robinson plays aggressively when he's in. Hupstead and Seaster have a good energy.

I can only hope this team progresses like last year when they pieced it together after conference play started. Coaches impact in the portal era are larger than their impacts in prior eras.

But at 0-3 versus the NCAA, let alone Division I, the start has been less than expectations. The two wins were against NAIA schools, and didn't feel dominant like an upper echelon mid-major should win. However, if they are feeling out what kinda team they have and who plays well, there will be stretches of cold offense.

I've liked what I've seen offensively, but defense hasn't been there. Over 190 combined points versus a (still feels weird to say) Big Ten team to less than 150 combined against the predicted bottom of the Missouri Valley Conference is hard to understand. The only bright side is the rest of the Western Athletic Conference has been underwhelming so UTA still has a chance to win the games that matter.

Next opportunity for the men is a Tuesday match-up against Murray State. Tip-off time in Jacksonville is 4 pm. Then it's the Multi-Team Event in Jacksonville the following two days against Austin Peay and Rhode Island.

No comments:

Post a Comment