Sunday, September 3, 2023

How Strong is the 6-0 Record?

It has been 19 years since the UT Arlington volleyball team has started 6-0 after this weekend's matches. It's something that has been fun to watch and enjoy. However, it has looked almost too easy. Given that many blog posts of mine have chronicled the Mavs struggling against teams they maybe should not have struggled against, it seems like I am in weird territory.

The Mavs opened the season against the Bryant Bulldogs in the Amy Svoboda Memorial Classic last weekend. The Mavs looked like they started out rusty, but found their groove in the final two sets for a 3-1 win. The following day, they matched up against the Rhode Island Rams and looked much more consistent in a straight set sweep. They did not allow the Rams to reach 20 points in any set.

That set the stage for the final match against the host of the weekend tournament, the Air Force Falcons. Both teams won their first two matches leading up to the finale.

UTA and Air Force were evenly matched and a tight back and forth affair ended in a thrilling five-set win for the Mavericks. Each team got to the 20-point mark in every set, no set was won by more than five, two sets were won by the bare minimum of two and each team had a comeback set win. Overall, it was just a fun match to watch.

The victory gave UTA its first 3-0 start since 2020 and first 3-0 non-COVID season start since 2017.

There were no mid-week matchups after leaving Colorado. That led the Mavericks back to Arlington to host the UTA Classic at College Park Center. The first match was against Incarnate Word, a team UTA should handle easily, at least on paper. It was another sweep, but the Mavericks needed 27 to win the first set and got the third set by only three. A relatively easy 25-17 second set was the only really smooth set in the sweep. But as a volleyball coach once told me, a sweep is a sweep.

The following day, the Mavericks faced the winless Presbyterian College Blue Hose. In a combined 75-44 sweep, the Mavs handled their business for a 5-0 start.

In the night cap, former conference rivals clashed with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs capping the Classic. Like the first two matches, UTA swept to a victory after holding LT to 17 in the first two sets and coming from behind for a 25-22 third set win after trailing 21-20.

After the first two weeks in the books, UTA is looking at a 6-0 record. It is a nice feeling. Especially since this is all Maverick fans have as far as team sports until November.  But, as I alluded to at the beginning, they haven't been terribly tested. It would be one thing if these schools were the top of their conferences, but that's not the case here. If these teams were middle of the pack in top level conferences, that be another.

But here's what we actually are dealing with in order of appearance:

  • Bryant was picked fourth out of sixth in the America East Conference preseason poll,
  • Rhode Island was slotted last out of ten in the Atlantic 10,
  • Air Force was tabbed seventh out of the 11 Mountain West Conference,
  • the Southland thinks Incarnate Word will end up 6th out of ten SLC U's,
  • Presbyterian's prognostication was seventh out of eighth in the Big South, and finally
  • Louisiana Tech is predicted ninth out of nine Conference USA squads.

Now, I will be the first to say that as a whole, preseason polls plus a dollar will get you four quarters. But, when taken on a macro scale, there is a lot of crude accuracy. Bryant may surprise someone, but the average means Rhode Island won't.  UTA is beating who they should. Will that get them ready for UT Rio Grande Valley, Stephen F. Austin or Grand Canyon? I honestly don't know.

Due to that, that's why the start is nice, but not something to get confident about for the rest of the season. In 2017, they turned that 3-0 start to 5-1. However, the Mavs ultimately finished 13-17 and 7-9 in conference. In 2004, they did finish with a 24-7 record and 15-5 in SLC play.

The season gets more challenging this week. The Mavs once again avoid a mid-week match before heading north to Oklahoma for the Tulsa Classic. The teams coming this week are better in Central Arkansas (picked fourth of 12 in the Atlantic Sun), Tulsa (fifth of seven in the American Athletic Conference West Division) and Oral Roberts (fourth of ten in the Summit League).

Their records are a bit deceiving - Central Arkansas 2-4, Tulsa 1-4, Oral Roberts 2-4 - but they've played a considerably harder schedule than UTA. It will be the toughest test for the Mavs this year.

Next weekend will give us a little better idea of where the Mavericks are. Until then, 6-0 sure is nice.

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