Sunday, July 23, 2023

Basketball Schedule Detective, Summer 2023 Edition

As usual per the summer, there's a slow trickle of information coming out, usually from outside sources, regarding the upcoming season's schedule. I'm not sure why and I have never followed up upon why, but the UT Arlington teams always seem late to the schedule-release party.

So with that, let's play schedule detective for the basketball teams and see what we know as of now. I'm not sure of any other place that tries to put the known releases all in one place.

First, the Western Athletic Conference has released their upcoming conference schedule and it is vastly different than what we've seen as of late. It is a full double-round robin schedule, with one home and one away game against each member of the conference. UTA hasn't had that since the 2015/16 Sun Belt Conference season, when they played 20 games against the ten other members of that conference. In fact, the first three years of the Belt was a double round robin, as well the lone year in the WAC in 2012/13. You'd have to go back to the 2002/03 season when UTA played a double-round robin in the Southland Conference.

Since 2000/01, UTA has played a double round robin conference schedule only seven times. Considering it is the best way to determine a true champion, that is a shame to me. The best way to figure out the best team, is have them play everyone equally on even ground. Hard to say you are the best team if you had a lower schedule strength in conference and dodged number two or three, for example.

The other thing to keep in mind is when do you play certain conference rivals. I was frustrated last year that we caught Stephen F. Austin over the Christmas break. And that game was still the seventh-best attended game. There were a large number of Lumberjacks in the crowd, and the student section was non-existent. Finishing with Southern Utah and Utah Tech in late February/early March didn't make sense. I thought the games should be switched. It looks like that problem has been mostly rectified.

The two conference games hosted over the break will be Utah Valley on January 11 and Seattle on January 13. The worst thing I can say about this schedule is the Mavericks catch one of the WAC's best teams over a student break.

In an effort to avoid more conference games over the Winter Break, the "second season" actually starts in November for the Mavericks. This is another interesting take on this year's schedule. Conference games are rare in December historically. 

From the first Southland Conference season in 1963/64 until Spring 1993, there were no December games. From 1993/94 to present, there have only been 16 seasons with a December conference game. This will be the first conference game UTA has played in November.  

It also bucks the normal composition of non-conference games first, iron out your team, see what they are capable of in an in-game environment and look to see who gels with who. With two games in late November and early December there may be conference outcomes before the team is known.

The conference season will pause and non-conference will resume, before non-conference ends and WAC play resumes. It's a small hiccup, but one I think is worth it for the true round-robin schedule.

Abilene Christian opens the conference slate on November 29 at College Park Center, before the Mavs go to Grand Canyon on December 2. I wasn't a big fan of the awkward home/away weekends and it doesn't look like that is changing. Travel partners exist for a reason to save travel costs.

However, outside of Utah Tech in Saint George and Southern Utah in Cedar City, there's no true travel partners. Utah Valley is over 800 driving miles from Seattle while Grand Canyon and California Baptist is at a more manageable 300 plus driving miles. The cost savings tends to come in the form of a bus ride rather than a flight. The two paired Utah schools are the only one to allow that.

In the East, Tarleton and Abilene Christian are a couple hours apart, while UTA and SFA are roughly three. The east certainly helps the west more. UT Rio Grande Valley is the lone island school in Texas. Can't believe this thought has entered my mind, but it might be time to give Texas A&M Corpus Christi a look, but that's a topic for a different post.

Conference play ceases for a month before resuming with a road game at Tarleton on January 4. The schedule becomes consistent with games every Thursday/Saturday with the exception of hosting Grand Canyon on Jan 27 with no Thursday game and hosting California Baptist on March 7 to close the season with no Saturday game. 

The Mavs play at SFA on January 6 before welcoming them to CPC on February 10. UTA hosts UTRGV on January 18 and Tarleton on February 15.

The full WAC schedule can be found on UTAMavs.com.

The women play opposite the men, so they will open WAC play at Abilene Christian on November 29 before hosting Grand Canyon on the second day of December. 

That is another change I can support. There were many times last year where the opponents confused me as they played independent of each other. It felt like we played certain schools more, but the reality was the gender played a lot of one team together early.  

Their schedule is also on UTAMavs.com.

As far as the non-conference portion, there is some news I know. I don't have any connections with the current coaching staff and such, so no one to casually chat with about scheduling.

The WAC entered into a scheduling agreement with Conference USA for the next two years. I supported this 100 percent. I've heard from coaches locally and outside UTA, plus the anecdotal rumors, that it is getting harder and harder to get quality home games as a non Power-5 University. The "big guys" just don't travel outside of conference play much. This agreement helps with that issue and does so with quality opponents as each school involved would get a home and away game.

That last sentence had a catch... involved. CUSA has essentially nine schools this year, compared to the WAC's 11. The answer to that is to drop the bottom two WAC schools in last year's NET ranking. For those new to the blog and anything UTA, the Mavs were the worst NET-ranked WAC team last year, and therefore will not be involved. Same with UTRGV, for the record. 

So two potential games are out there. I was looking forward to that potential match-up, but the Mavs didn't get it done there last year. Kennesaw State will join CUSA next year I believe, plus I don't think the Mavs will finish last again with what I've seen coming in. But as far as this year, that is just not happening.

UTA does have a contract with North Texas and will play in Denton this year, but no date is set.

Rocco Miller, one of the few all-around College Basketball experts I have seen, not just the top Universities, has provided the bulk of the following schedule news, presented in chronological order. I follow him on Twitter and recommend giving him a follow too.

UTA will open the season at home against Oral Roberts on November 6, likely the homecoming date. If so, it will break a streak of two homecoming games against Non-Division-I schools, and first real one since fall 2019, as the COVID year preceded the two non-DI games, where Oklahoma State was likely the homecoming opponent.

UTA will participate in the inaugural 2023 Acrisure Classic when they go to the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson, Arizona on November 19 before hosting Alcorn State on November 22. Interesting note, but Arizona and Michigan State will play on the main Fox Network channel following the Detroit Lions/Green Bay Packers Thanksgiving Day NFL game. While this is likely a guarantee game of some sort, it's not a true one in the typical one game, here's your check format. Alcorn is the lone team to play all three other schools involved.

Fast forward to December 16 when UTA makes another appearance at Dickie's Arena in Fort Worth against Air Force. Last year, UTA met Texas State while TCU met SMU in the later game. This year Arizona State will play the Horned Frogs following the UTA game. I like this set-up that TCU and UTA have going at Dickie's. It seemed like a rivalry match-up last year in both games, whereas this year feels like a showcase.

Speaking of Texas State, there is nothing released I have seen, but I heard uncorroborated rumors that last year's game was Texas State's home half of a contract. Something to do with conflicts at Strahan Arena in San Marcos. If that rings true, UTA would host Texas State. If not, there should be a scheduled date with the Bobcats either way.

The last known game is against Texas-Austin in their new CPC-inspired arena, Moody Center. This will be an interesting game as I'm convinced the Longhorns actively recruited 2023 WAC Freshman of the Year Chendall Weaver. Late in the Transfer Portal season and after many reassurances there'd be a sophomore season in Arlington, Weaver announced his portal entry and a week later was magically donning the awful colors of our fellow UT system school in Austin (full disclosure, I've always hated shades of orange on sports teams). The game is scheduled for New Year's Day and is the only true guarantee game I see so far.

Outside of potential games against North Texas and Texas State, the only other missing piece is a multi-team event, or MTE, which allows for three additional games. I haven't received any leaks on that one either.

The NCAA allows 28 games per season plus another three for the MTE. So, using the math skills I learned from grade school on up to the two degrees at UTA, I count a total of 25 scheduled games with a date, at least one with UNT and likely two with Texas State, up to 27 total games. So there's one game unaccounted for.

UTA had four guarantee games last year with Oklahoma State, Louisiana State, San Francisco and California. With essentially one plus the Arizona Classic, I'd expect another bigger name school on the horizon. If that's the case, which is all conjecture at this point, there would be no non-DI games this upcoming year for the first time since 2012/13.  That in and of itself is a bright thing. 

As for the women, I have heard nothing anywhere, though I'd expect a game in Denton versus North Texas. UTA played Division I games against Texas Southern, Texas A&M-Commerce and Arizona at home and Houston and Lamar on the road. There's a high chance that at least 80 percent of those teams will appear again but with a flipped venue.

Looking over this schedule for the men, I expect a rebound in attendance numbers. Excluding the COVID year where every game drew 624 and counting NIT home games in the average, UTA's numbers have fallen every year since 2015/16, six out of seven years. I'm not sure what it will build up to when the last game is tallied, but I expect well north of 1,400.

Either way, with a new coach, new players with a proven and/or potential scoring threat and what we know of the schedule, this will be one of the most anticipated seasons since attendance started dipping.

1 comment:

  1. I've meant to add this for a while, but it was officially announced yesterday that the Dicke's Arena event that featured two games with UTA versus an opponent and then TCU versus another school. But it will officially be a tripleheader with Texas Tech taking on Vanderbilt. This is rapidly becoming an event.

    Seems to me that the Metroplex tournament featuring UTA, North Texas (who already play each other regularly) TCU and SMU (the final two have met nine times since 2010) would kinda have this feel. Until then, a tripleheader seems to be filling that void.

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