Tuesday, May 9, 2023

Softball's Rollercoaster Return to the WAC

With UT Arlington's doubleheader sweep of Sam Houston this past Saturday in softball, the Mavericks concluded the 2023 season, the first in the Western Athletic Conference since 2013. There were some highs and some equally rough lows.

I'll start with this: I don't know what I expected from this team. They lost a lot of offense from last year, but the two main starting pitchers returned. Softball arms don't tire as easily as their baseball counterparts and the pitching really is dominated by a select few players. They were picked ninth in the preseason poll. They finished seventh.

I don't put stock in the polls, especially in this era of roster turnover (admittedly less than football or the two basketball sports) as well as the constant conference changes. However, the Mavericks were not far off, finishing with the seventh seed. However, due to some of those aforementioned low, there were some real head scratching moments, it could have been much, much better.

The expectations may have been a little higher than it should have been due to some early season success. The Mavs won four of their first five games with a win over Texas Tech and a ranked Kentucky team. They faltered after that, losing eight of ten. They've played a little less than .500 ball since then.

Unlike my most recent post about baseball, where somehow the offense has done what they needed to in order to get ahead, this team seems to do just enough to play a competitive game, but it ends with a loss. 

UTA is 9-11 in one run games. They won two games out of three when the differential was two runs. The Mavericks are a bit better in extra innings, going 5-3. In run rule games, they are 3-5, meaning they have been blowout more than they have done the blowout. None of this is unexpected for a team that finished the regular season at 21-28 overall and 11-13 in conference play.

But what could it have been?

The Mavs finished 7th overall in the WAC. Utah Tech, the preseason eighth team, won the conference title at 19-5. Two of those losses were to UTA. The other two UT losses were to Grand Canyon, the second place team and preseason favorites. The Trailblazers only suffered one other conference loss and swept four WAC series'.

UTA didn't play GCU, but they did visit the third place team in Stephen F. Austin. On the road, the Mavericks took two of three from the Lumberjacks. As a two-decade alum, beating the 'jacks is always a good thing.

Again, UTA didn't play the fourth-place team in Seattle, but did play fifth place Tarleton at home. This was the one that got away. At the end of April, the Texans took all three games against UTA with scores of 7-10, 5-6 and 3-4. In game 1, UTA was tied in the seventh inning, but couldn't stop the Texans from scoring three. In game two, UTA had a 5-3 leading entering the seventh. In game three, UTA entered the bottom of the seventh trailing 4-2. The first three batters reached base, loading them with no outs. But a flyout, fielder's choice and ground out ended up scoring only one and the Mavericks were swept. Tarleton and UTA were tied in the standings entering that series.

At the conclusion of the season, UTA played Sam Houston and needed a sweep to jump the Bearkats in the standings. They didn't get the sweep, thanks to a one-run loss in the opening game, but got the final two, the second on a dramatic walk-off to claim the series.

Tarleton was also the only team above UTA in the standings that defeated UTA in a full series. Which means, UTA had to have some inexplicable losses. 

As a whole, UTA is 5-7 against teams below them in the standings, compared to the 6-6 against teams one through six, 6-3 against one through four and team six.

The first disappointing series was against California Baptist, where they were swept, including two one-run losses. The rubber match was a 12-1 defeat.

After winning series against Utah Tech and SFA, they dropped a disaster at Abilene Christian, one of the four teams to not make the conference tournament, and riding near the bottom of the RPI for the conference at the time. UTA lost the series but were not swept. The losses were brutal, 1-8 and 3-7. The lone win was a run-rule 16-7 win in five.

The Mavericks did win the series against New Mexico State. A one-run loss where UTA was chasing NMSU the whole game prevented the Mavs from getting a sweep.

No question to me that the Tarleton series was a disappointment, and that affected the final regular season result. Had the Mavericks taken the series, which they were quite capable of, won the series against ACU and even just avoided the sweep against CBU, they are in a tie for third, with the tiebreaker over SFA. They'd have a first round bye and avoid the first round single-elimination game.

UTA has drawn Sam Houston to open the conference tournament. Counting an 8-15 loss to Sam in February during a non-conference tournament, UTA and Sam split the four games. As mentioned, softball pitchers arm aren't as taxed as their baseball counterparts, so the single-elimination was done to benefit the top seeds.

Fortunately, UTA has a good pitcher in sophomore Jessica Adams, not great, but good. Her 2.93 ERA is good for sixth in the conference. GCU has the top four spots. Her 14-14 overall record is indicative of the shaky offense. The 14 wins is most in the WAC. The 14 losses is good for second most. She pitched in 42 games (1st in WAC), with 16 coming in relief. 

UTA needed a more consistency from a second pitcher. Junior Gracie Bumpers was the one to occupy that role the most. With a 6-11 record and a 5.22 record in 19 starts, 36 total appearances, totaling 111.1 innings pitched, there certainly is room for improvement. Freshman Tamya Waiters was the only other pitcher to log an out, going 1-3, 7.50 ERA in 37.1 inning pitched in 17 appearances. However, Waiters no longer appears on UTA's roster and clicking on her name in the recap stories where she made an appearance yields a 404 error. Her last appearance was March 25 against California Baptist. She likely is no longer on the team.

UTA was ninth in the conference in batting average, hits, runs, runs batted in, fifth in walks, seventh in total strikeouts, and fourth in homeruns.

Freshman Marley Neises and senior Lindsey Franklin lead the way for UTA with seven homers each. Unlike other teams in the WAC, UTA spreads out the homerun threat, with no player appearing in the top 15.

Neises also led UTA with a .382 batting average, good for tenth in conference. Utah Tech mirrored GCU on the batting side, as a Trailblazer occupies the top three spots in that category. Franklin is second in BA for the team at .294, good for 45th in the WAC.

And that illustrates the problem for UTA. They needed just a bit more offensively in those close games to give Adams a chance for more wins. 

UTA is relatively young overall, with five freshman and another five sophomores. There are three traditional seniors and four fifth year seniors. Of the top five batting averages, only two are seniors or higher. Coupled with the sophomore Adams and junior Bumpers pitching, the Mavericks are primed for a better performance next year (transfer activity notwithstanding).

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