Crunch Time in the WAC

 I wanted to get this post up a bit earlier but hit crunch time at work. Dang need for regular income...

But the Western Athletic Conference baseball season has come down to the last week and the standings are as tight as my jeans from college on me now. There's a somewhat close race for the conference crown, a five-way tie for third, of which the UT Arlington baseball team is a part of, and a two-team race for eighth place and the last invitation to the conference tournament.

I'll start with top, transition to the bottom, then move to the middle. But first, here's the standings:

Sam Houston 21-6, 32-20
Grand Canyon 19-7, 33-19, 1.5 Games Back
Utah Valley 14-11, 29-21, 6 GB
California Baptist 15-12, 28-25, 6 GB
Seattle U 15-12, 19-29, 6 GB
Abilene Christian 15-12, 32-20, 6 GB
UTA 15-12, 25-25, 6 GB
UTRGV 12-14, 26-24, 8.5 GB
Stephen F. Austin 12-15, 22-25, 9 GB
Sacramento State 11-16, 27-26, 10 GB
Tarleton 8-17, 24-25, 12 GB
NM State 9-21, 13-35, 13.5 GB
Utah Tech 8-19, 13-36, 13 GB

With their 21-6 record, Sam Houston is a game and a half up on Grand Canyon. The Bearkats would need an epic collapse in Stephenville against 11th place Tarleton State in order to let the 'Lopes pass them, who are hosting California Baptist.

GCU has a four and a half game lead on third, so they will not drop out of their second-place spot they currently own.

UTRGV and Stephen F. Austin are in a battle for eighth place. UTRGV currently has a half game lead, so a series win by either team will clinch that final tournament berth. SFA won their series over Sacramento State, so the Hornets cannot move into eighth. In order for the Hornets to pass SFA, UTRGV would win at least two games, keeping them ahead of Sac St. If SFA wins two and the Hornets three, the Jacks own the tiebreaker and would pass the Vaqueros.

Now third through seventh is where the real fun is. Two WAC series' this weekend contain four of the teams in that jumble. As this is a UTA-focused blog, I'm going to narrow the possibilities as I see them focused around the Mavericks for brevity's sake. At stake is a first-round bye in the conference tourney for two of those five teams. On the surface, that advantage is huge as the top-four team's best pitcher will go against the remaining teams "second best."

First, UTA hosts Utah Valley, who, despite winning one less game, but losing one less, are technically tied. The difference is actually measured in the thousandths place in winning percentage. So close that it will be measured as if the records were the same. 

Second, Abilene Christian and Seattle will square off in Seattle. This is huge for UTA as they lost to both teams earlier in the year, one game to two. As mentioned, Cal Baptist will travel to Arizona to square off against GCU. UTA owns the tie-breaker over the Lancers, the only one they currently have with the teams tied for third.

The first scenario is pretty easy. A series sweep of the Wolverines and UTA is in the top four. Someone has to lose the ACU/Seattle series, vaulting the Mavericks ahead and regardless of what CBU does, UTA will finish ahead of them. The only question would be is it three or four. If ACU or Seattle sweep too, the Mavericks would be fourth. Otherwise, UTA is in third.

The second scenario, a 2-1 series win, gets a little murkier, but still keeps the Mavs in the driver's seat for that bye, but would allow a fourth-place finish at best. Regardless of whether ACU/Seattle is a sweep or a 2-1 split, UTA would not be able to get in third. The only variable in this scenario is CBU, who would need a sweep of GCU to pass the Mavs, which is a pretty tall order. 

In the third scenario, a 1-2 series loss, UTA absolutely would drop out of the top four. As either ACU/Seattle and UVU would move ahead. After that, the question would be in seeding, as the best the Mavs could do is fifth. If ACU/Seattle is a sweep and CBU drops the same number of games, UTA is in fifth. If ACU/Seattle is a split and CBU loses 1-2 or worse, UTA would be in sixth. If ACU/Seattle is a split and CBU wins their series, UTA is seventh.

The worst scenario, a Wolverine sweep, drops UTA to sixth at best. In that outcome, they lose ground to UVU, would guarantee to finish behind ACU and Seattle, regardless of their outcome, and UTA would look to the GCU/CBU game. The Mavs would be in sixth if the Lopes sweep, and seventh if the Lancers win one.

Looking outside UTA, Seattle owns the tiebreaker over UVU too. Should they win their series over ACU, there's no way Seattle doesn't get that bye. ACU lost to CBU 1-2, the only other tiebreaker in the group of five sitting at third in the standings.

Now all that said, there is one final wildcard, the weather. There's a 30-40 percent chance of rain today and tomorrow. In Pheonix, there's a 70 percent chance today and clear the remainder. Seattle, the city of rain, has a 40 percent chance today, with a clear forecast the remainder. Given all those variables, there's a real chance for a delay in at least one series and a remote possibility of a canceled game, though not likely as a doubleheader would be played on all the clear Friday and /or Saturday.

I can't remember a conference race this tight going into the last weekend. Enjoy the experience, it doesn't happen often.

In a recent trend, the first games of the final conference weekend will be today, Thursday, rather than Friday, to get enough rest for the first games on Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:30.

Gabe Starks is scheduled to start game one. He has struggled since my last post about the team, where he led the WAC in ERA. He's currently 5-1 with a 5.78 ERA. UVU has scored 67 runs in the last five games, so he's going to be tested. 

Opposite Starks for UVU is likely Logan Gerling, who is 5-5 and a 6.15 ERA. There's a high likelihood of a slugfest this weekend looking at those stat lines.

Both teams sit middle of the pack in offensive production as a team. However, UVU is sixth in team ERA at 6.12 while UTA is tenth at 6.98.

Wolverine Daniel Dickinson leads the UVU offensive charge with a .394 batting average, 49 runs scored and 37 RBI. After that, it's Cole Jordan second on the team in B.A. at .312 with 25 runs and 33 RBI. Patrick Mills is the only other Wolverine over .300 at .308 with 41 runs and 36 RBI.

UTA still has the same offensive leaders, and has been fairly consistent. Garrison Berkley has moved into first in batting average at .350, followed by Ryan Black, still the legitimate freshman of the year candidate in the conference at .345 and Wilson Galvan rounds out the .300 club at .310, though Tyson Pointer is .002 percentage points out. 

Berkley is tops in runs scored at 50, followed by Black at 40 and Ben Lumsden is third at 39.

Black is the RBI leader at 52, followed by Pointer at 45 and Lumsden at 36.

Interestingly enough, both teams are near equal in home runs at 51 for UTA and 50 for UVU, doubles 100 for UTA to 109 for Utah Valley. The Wolverines hit three times as many triples though,  21 to 7.

The stat line shows a near evenly-matched series. First pitch is set for 6:35 tonight.