First Season Disappointments

I'm not certain a 5-8 non-conference record for the 2022/23 UT Arlington men's basketball season was how the team and fans envisioned the return to the Western Athletic Conference. Probably more devastating is when you factor out the meaningless non-Division I games, UTA is a paltry 2-8.

That's important because only D-I games count in any ranking, NET, RPI, etc. This year, the WAC is seeding it conference tournament based more on the overall resume, rather than just the conference record. UTA has been near the bottom, landing in last place for most of the last month.

Probably the most frustrating thing about that is this team has shown promise, but just can't get it into a higher gear.

For the sake of this entry, I'm not going to go into too much detail of the season's games, or in some cases any for the non-DI games. They raise no excitement for me or fans in general. It might be nice to players to face different faces, but they aren't much better than scrimmages. 

As the first season, non-conference, is over, I'll look ahead to the second season of conference play.

The Mavericks opened the season against Oklahoma State. In what will be a theme for most games, if a ten-minute period is factored out, UTA would have won. However, three-quarters of a game is not what matters. The Cowboys pushed a five-point halftime-lead to 31 at the second media timeout, or just over eight minutes. The Mavs fought back eventually making the deficit to ten before an eventual 77-66 final. It was the first game with a nearly new roster. Three quarters of the Mav points were scored by newcomers. 

UTA beat Southwestern University, a D-III school, 103-61 in the home opener on homecoming. Hardin-Simmons, another D-III school was the next home game-snoozer, 100-59.

Nevada completed the three-game home stand. UTA never looked in sync as the offensive output was the worst of the year as they shot 18 percent from the field (not just from the three-point arc, but all FG's). The defense held Nevada to 37 percent from the field in the first half, but the opponent went over 50 percent in the second half to pull away 62-43.

In UTA's multi-team event (MTE), an eight-team field was awaiting with Drexel the only known-opponent. I really like the tournament feel of an eight-team MTE. The Mavs turned a four-point halftime disadvantage into a 59-38 loss. Poor shooting woes doomed the Mavericks, less than 17 percent in the second half, 25 percent overall. It would be the worst offensive output of the season, beating a bad Nevada score by five.

Northern Kentucky lost to host Florida Gulf Coast and set the stage for round two. The Norse and Mavs played a back-and-forth affair, and the lead changed 13 times and there were seven ties. UTA gained the lead with under a minute to go in the second half as sophomore Shemar Wilson hit the go-ahead layup and Brandyn Talbot converted a turnover into a clutch three-point shot as he was the team's leading scorer in a 60-56 win.

The win temporarily halted the 2022/23 formula as East Carolina was next on deck. UTA hung close to the Pirates for much of the first half, tied at 28 with a little over two minutes to go, before ECU went on a run for an eight-point lead. ECU continued the run and pushed the lead to double digits early in the second. UTA then hung with the Pirates the remainder before the final of 79-65.

UTA returned home and beat Howard Payne, another D-III school 99-41.

That seemed to get the Mavs from double-digit losers to a competitive team, at least as the final score went. UTA traveled to Baton Rouge and hung close to LSU. The Mavericks took the lead at the seven-and-a-half-minute mark and upped the lead to four points before a 14-0 Tiger run reclaimed the lead. UTA fought back, but ended up losing by four. 

The North Texas Mean Green returned to College Park Center and the Mavs performed well against a top-60 team. UTA and UNT went back-and-forth in the first until UTA led 27-24 at the break. The Green got the lead early in the second and never lost it. The Mavericks kept it close, and the deficit never eclipsed nine, and the lead was just one late in the game. UNT hit their free throws and guard Kyron Gipson was just off with a game-tying three in a 60-57 loss.

A game I was really happy to see returned, and was afraid would not, was the Dec. 10th Texas State game. The game was at a neutral site, Dickie's Arena in Fort Worth. The game was elevated to an event as it was the first part of a double-header with TCU/SMU in the nightcap.

The Mavericks grabbed an early lead, but Texas State grabbed the lead for good mid-way through the first. The game was eerily similar to the North Texas game. UTA cut the Bobcat lead to two with three minutes left in the first when TXST went on a 9-0 run before Wilson hit a couple of free throws. The Bobcats increased their lead to ten on four separate occasions in the second half, but UTA answered each time to keep the game close. However, the best they could do was get within four before Texas State always had an answer. In the end, it was another moral victory against a defending conference champ as the Mavs fell 71-65.

After a long break, the Mavs looked the best they had all year on a road trip to San Francisco. The Dons were NCAA tournament participants the year prior as an at-large. In the sign of the times, I never felt UTA had the game in the bag until the last horn, but Coach Greg Young's squad held the lead from start to finish. The end became dicey, as UTA lost a 12-point lead with a minute and half left, but did enough to claim a 68-63 win. The Mavs moved up almost 50 spots in the NET ranking with a great road victory.

The best UTA performance was followed by arguably their worst. UTA was facing a California Golden Bears team that was winless. Including that were losses to Southern University (4-9 overall), UC-San Diego (5-7) and Eastern Washington (6-7). Other than Kansas State, (11-1), TCU (10-1) and Santa Clara (11-3), no one else on the Cal non-conference schedule has a record that seems remarkable. They also were rated 341 in the NET prior to tip-off.

UTA had a lead for the first seven minutes, and then just utterly failed on the offensive end. UTA put in just 19 first half points. They got 32 in the second frame, but the defense was uncharacteristically a non-factor, giving up 45 points in the second half, second most to Oklahoma State's 50 in the opening game. It also was the largest defeat of the season, 73-51. Once Cal got the lead, they expanded upon it pretty quick. It wasn't a close game. Of all the games this season, this is the biggest disappointment. The Mavs lost to better teams by single digits. They looked out-matched and out-gunned. The Bears also were without their leading scorer at 16.5 per game. 

I had hope we were building something as WAC play was looming. Several close losses followed by two wins would have been better than the current fact: 2-8 against DI schools. They have loses to every Quad team in the NET rankings.

The formula seems pretty clear for the year, play close games, usually low-scoring, but come up just short with a surprise along the way. UTA may sneak one against Sam Houston (10-2), Stephen F. Austin (8-5) or Utah Valley (9-4), but it will be a battle against the bottom of the conference with Abilene Christian and UT-Rio Grande Valley. 12 of the 13 WAC schools will make the tournament in Vegas. At the beginning of the season, I knew UTA would be in. Now I'm not certain.

That's not to say there aren't bright spots. I am enamored with the play of freshman Chendall Weaver. He has a lot of athletic ability and natural talent. His 8.1 points a game sits fourth on the team. He's pulled down 4.5 rebounds a game as well, tied for second. I'd like to see his free throw percentage improve at 65.1 percent. His three-point percentage is above average (35.5) and is second on the team among those with five attempts or more. If he gets the three mark closer to 40 percent and free throw's to 75, UTA will be on the positive end of some of these close losses. Can't expect a frosh to carry your team, however. He made the WAC Hoops Digest all-freshman team from non-conference play. If he stays with UTA his entire career, he will be in the record books.

Another freshman making an impact is Brandon Walker. At 7.8 points per game and 4.5 boards per, he's right behind Weaver. He can shoot the three, but his percentage is low at ten percent. He has provided a good interior presence and doesn't get called for a lot of fouls, relative to his position. Like Weaver, Walker also made the WAC Hoops Digest all-frosh team.

Junior guard Gipson has been the most productive junior college transfer as well as most productive backcourt player. He's turning into a team leader, most evident by him taking that game ending shot at UNT. He took the miss very hard and his team came to him and lifted him up. He's second in scoring at nine a game, as well as assists, 2.6 per game. He needs to drastically improve his field goal percentage, which sits at 38.8, to really elevate a low-scoring offense. His three percentage is a respectable 34.1, but not stellar. If he'd make more of those mid-range jumpers and contested lay-ups, he'd be in the all-conference team consideration.

Senior guard Aaron Cash is third in scoring at 8.1 points per game. He's got one of the best field goal percentages at 42.3 percent. He's one of the better three shooters, at 40.5 percent. His overall field goal attempts are low, fifth overall, while his three attempts sit second. I'd like to see him shoot more. The Mavericks may need him to do so. Those numbers may mean he's more selective with his shots now. But if his overall average slipped a little, but he made a bucket or two more a game, I think that'd be an overall win.

Assists are the big issue on this team as there doesn't seem to be a true point guard. Junior guard Marion Humphrey is the assists leader, at 40 total, coming to a little over three a game. To put it in perspective, Javon Levi led the team last year at over 5, while scoring about 5.5. Humphrey has scored a respectable 7.2 points per game, good for sixth. He leads the team in minutes and is one of the better defensive guards, garnering 22 steals, also first on the Mavs. He's consistently guarding the opponents better scorer. While UTA has seen the opponent's star score during the season, their defense has proven to be one of the best attributes of this squad. That's in large part to Humphrey.

But no question, sophomore forward Wilson is the stat leader on this team. He joins Cash as the only player to start every game. He's first on the team in the following stats: field goals made, field goal percentage (minimum of one attempt per game), free throws made, free throws attempted, points, points per game, rebounds, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds and blocks. He also leads the team in personal fouls and turnovers, though neither are unexpected for a team's better or best interior player. Also notable is his free throw percentage, third on the team with a minimum of one attempt a game. As most fouls are within the paint, having a "big" that shoots free throws above 70 percent is a big plus. Any future Maverick success will likely be because Wilson had a large hand in it. 

Wilson sits third in the WAC in rebounding and eighth in blocked shots.

As for the team, they are bad offensively and above average defensively. The team has played behind too much this year. Their non-conference schedule is the toughest in the WAC. But, as evident in the California loss, that doesn't mean that the schedule has prepared them for easier wins against lesser competition. Every game will be a battle.

Offensively, UTA sits in last place in the WAC in scoring, field goal percentage, three point percentage, assists and assist to turnover margin. They are in the bottom third, but not last in FT percentage, three-point field goals and turnover margin.

Defensively, they are in the top third in scoring. They are top half in field goal percentage, blocks and rebound margin. Now, the irony is that they are not good defensively in rebounds, but do really well in getting an offensive board. The North Texas game is a good example of a loss that would have been a win had UTA limited their opponent's second chance point opportunities.

Due to the offense/defense imbalance, UTA is last in the WAC in scoring margin. As far as losses go, there have been three that were two possessions or less, one was three to four possessions, but the rest (four) have been rough at five possessions or more. It looks like UTA is in a battle for a WAC tournament berth. I didn't think a last place finish was in the cards this year.

This season's non-conference showing is all the more frustrating, as they've looked good against better competition, while looking terrible against bad. I enter the following evidence with teams NET ranking (as of Christmas):

• UTA beat USF (88) by five on the road,
• lost to UNT (41) by three at home,
• lost to LSU (81) on the road by four after having a lead late, and
• lost to OSU (46) by 11, but used a 33-12 run over 8:51 to make it a game.

But:

• the Mavs beat Northern Kentucky (253) by four on a neutral court,
• lost to California (319) by 22 on the road,
• lost by six to Texas State (205) on a neutral court with no second-half lead,
• lost by 21 to Drexel (197) on a neutral floor and didn't score above 40, and
• lost to Nevada (59) at home by 19.

If UTA is going to win in conference play, it will be because their defense made the opponent's offense rush and take bad and/or contested shots while the offense was patient and made 45 percent of their shots or more. The Mavs have shot better than 45 percent in four of the five wins. In two of the three close losses, they shot better than 40 percent. In four of the five double-digit losses, they shot less than 36 percent.

For example, if they shot 35 percent against Nevada, and assuming every shot was a two and nothing else changed (big stretch) UTA wins by one. The shots were there but the makes were not.

The inconsistency will make handicapping this team tough. They have the potential, but they are very young. If this core stays together, they should be a force in 2023/24. But as it is now, they are going to be playing the role of underdog game in and out the rest of the year.