Is the Record Deceiving?

Conference play looms for the 2022 UT-Arlington volleyball squad as the Mavericks concluded the first half of the season with the UTA Invitational in the books. But what did we just witness in the first month?

It was a shaky start to the season as UTA went 0-3 in the Ellesyn Invitational. They lost 3-1 (UC-Davis), 3-0 (Montana), and 3-2 (North Dakota).

They rebounded with a 2-1 showing at home in the UTA Classic. A great 3-2 win against Providence was the highlight. However, a loss to North Texas is never a good thing.

On the road at former Southland Conference rival UT San Antonio's UTSA Invitational, I really got excited for the first time as they swept the competition to win the tourney. Wins against USF (3-1), McNeese (3-1) and UTSA (3-2) captured the crown.

In the second home tournament, UTA again swept the competition to pick up three more wins and a tournament title They faced and beat New Orleans (3-0), Prairie View A&M (3-1) and Lamar (3-2).

They currently sit at 8-4, which is the best non-conference winning percentage since 2019. However, the combined records of those they beat are 40-62. Even factoring out UTA's wins, it doesn't get much better at 40-54, a winning percentage of .426. Two of the teams have winning records, Providence at 8-4 and Lamar at 6-5. Two others have winning records when excluding the UTA loss in South Florida and Lamar. Conversely, Prairie View skews the number at a horrid 2-14.

UC-Davis at 6-5 and Montana at 7-5 are the only teams that have beat UTA with a winning record. North Dakota is 3-8 while North Texas is 6-9.

This is a long way of saying...the jury is still out. I personally believe the team will struggle a bit in conference play and we may be looking at a middle-of-the-pack team. I'd suspect Stephen F. Austin and UTRGV are the cream of the crop based on past results and season performance. Everything and everyone else seems like a crap shoot.

The current Western Athletic Conference "standings" are:

Stephen F. Austin 12-1
UTRGV 11-4
UTA 8-4
Utah Tech 6-3
New Mexico State 7-4
Tarleton 8-6
Grand Canyon 6-5
Seattle 4-4
California Baptist 5-6
Utah Valley 5-6
Abilene Christian 3-9
Sam Houston St 3-11
Southern Utah 1-8

I'm certain the Mavs won't finish as high as they are now, but won't be as low as they were in the preseason predictions (8 of 13).

Some good news for the Mavericks come when one looks at the roster. This is a young team. Brooke Townsend is the only senior on the team. There are five juniors, six sophomores and another six freshmen. 

Alyssa Duran (so.), Alli Wells (jr.), Briana Ford (so.) and Sophie Skinner (fr.) have played over forty sets this season. When I watched the North Texas match, Briana Brown (so.) had one of the strongest attacks I've seen in a while. The last two WAC freshman of the week honors have gone to UTA - Sophie Skinner and Jalie Tritt. The week Skinner won, Ford also won offensive player of the week. 

A lot of people view youth in sports as a promising future in coming years. But, many times it can also mean improvement as the season wears on, especially with the youngest ones. Freshmen picking up the college speed can improve dramatically. That may be visible as UTA is 8-1 since that 0-3 start.

We'll know a little more this Saturday when UTA visits Grand Canyon University to start WAC play.