Return of the WAC

Like Mark Morrison sang (using a small play on words), the Sun Belt is breaking up with the UT Arlington Athletic Department, prompting UTA to rejoin a familiar conference, which contains some familiar faces. 

How'd we get here? Plain and simple. UTA lacks a football program. This move was not initiated by UTA, but rather by discontent within the Sun Belt Conference. As the Sun Belt changed leadership and direction, they elected to focus their strategy on growing revenue through football. 

Of course, that's the one thing, the one, that UTA in its current form could not help with in accomplishing.

I've heard from some insiders, but have nothing else to corroborate this, but that the football schools lost a lot of faith when Little Rock added Wrestling. The Trojans were already below the conference minimum for sponsored sports. The Sun Belt required 14 sports, while Little Rock only had 13. The Sun Belt used to sponsor women's swimming and diving, but when the conference dropped the sport after several school left, they dropped below the minimum for sponsoring the sport, leaving Little Rock one short. SBC officials and schools became annoyed that the Trojans didn't invest in any sport the SBC offered to get in compliance with bylaws. The sad part is that didn't have anything to do with the Maverick program.

UTA had helped with the growing sports, as they added women's golf. I have talked to many people within the Department that they are informally looking at growing, but nothing is officially moving forward. That's not the case with Little Rock. They only added Wrestling as a donor had given the money specifically for that.

So, in a leaked letter, new Sun Belt Commissioner Keith Gil sent interim President Teik C. Lim saying that based on previous conversations, the Sun Belt believed it was in the conference's best interest for UTA (and Little Rock, but not mentioned in the letter) to seek new conference membership. If UTA found a new home by the end of the academic year, the Sun Belt would be gracious enough to waive all exit fees. If not, the conference would withhold some of their revenue distribution in ensuing years.

What many didn't know at the time, including myself, was that UTA was already in exploratory talks with the Missouri Valley Conference. In December 2020, both parties were in talks with the other. In the end, it didn't matter as the MVC offered membership to Murray State and University of Illinois-Chicago.. It made sense to me that the conference would pursue two schools within their footprint. Murray St. presents a good basketball school with a well-attended track record. UIC presents decent facilities in the Chicago market.

UTA offered only facilities. Hard to argue for the public schools to snub the Mavericks. Meanwhile, the private schools were attracted to UTA over the Dallas/Fort Worth market, with potential to recruit DFW students, and College Park Center to a lesser degree. But they made what I think is the best decision for them.

And personally, I'd have both hated and liked the idea of being in the MVC. 

The pros are fairly obvious. The MVC is a step up from the current competition of the one-bid Sun Belt. With its continued focus of football as the revenue generator, it's hard to imagine basketball getting to the point where if the top two teams met in the Conference tournament final, both would get into the NCAA tournament, regardless of outcome. That does happen in the MVC. The consistently have two teams make it. They are also generally a good, all-around sports conference. From the team sports of volleyball, baseball, softball, etc to the individual sports like the track and field trios, the MVC is tougher top to bottom. I would have liked to see if the Mavericks were competitive against the increased competition.

However, the drawbacks are more severe and higher in number. The biggest and probably hardest to overcome is the lack of any rival in any capacity. When UTA moved from the Southland Conference to the Western Athletic Conference for the start of the 2012/13 athletic season, there were questions about where we were competitively. We played in an increasingly watered down SLC, but had some trouble winning in the team sports. We did very well in the track sports. But UTA started in WAC tenure with a conference title in cross country, the first sport offered for a championship. Men's basketball went to the Conference tournament final before losing to nationally competitive New Mexico State. Baseball shared the WAC conference regular season title. It would be nice to compare UTA to the MVC week in and week out.

But, and this is the big but, UTA moved with both Texas State and UT San Antonio, two long-time conference rivals to the WAC. In addition, we moved to a conference Louisiana Tech called home. UTSA was four hours south while Tech was four hours east on major interstates. In the MVC, Missouri State in Springfield, Missouri is eight hours northeast and needs a combination of different types of highways. Carbondale, Illinois houses the second closest University in Carbondale, Illinois, a near 12-hour drive. There's no way UTA would have any rival while a member of that conference within a decade. The potential to develop any rivalry would be based on situations where big games were played in meaningful situations. If UTA's programs weren't there, that may never happen.

Rivalries are the main lifeblood of any sport at any level. Without them, the product suffers. Sun Belt games against Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina tend to draw less than any game against Texas State (more on that rivalry further down). They mean more as the series has geographic proximity, a history and a recent spate of meaningful games. None of that exists with any school in the MVC.

The other big hitch would have been budgets. MVC school tend to host more home games and draw 300-500 percent more fans than UTA does. They earn more NCAA credits in the tournament, which gets distributed to the schools, than UTA would initially. They draw more in baseball as well. Private schools have the ability to funnel more money to the programs as well. Factoring out football, UTA is middle of the pack in athletic budget in the Sun Belt. They'd be near the bottom in the Valley.

So if the Sun Belt didn't want us and the MVC wasn't an option, what's available? Factoring out the goofy rumors of the Southland, which is a come-if-you-have-football conference, watering down every other sport, there was an obvious answer. 

For those not watching after UTA left the WAC, things had changed drastically. Much of the time after UTA departed initially, they were left in survival mode. They took many schools that had no home, such as UT Pan American, Chicago State and Utah Valley State. Then, the takers included Division II call-ups like Grand Canyon, California Baptist and Dixie State.

But, something interesting happened at the beginning of 2021. Frustrated with the Southland Conference (for the reason I described above), four Texas schools left and joined the WAC. And not just any schools, but schools UTA had recent history with before moving.

Lamar, Sam Houston, Stephen F. Austin left their long-time homes and joined the WAC, along with Abilene Christian. All of a sudden, the WAC took on a totally different look, both geographically and competitively. While it wasn't the same conference UTA joined in 2012, it also wasn't the same conference UTA left in 2013.

Don't make any illusions, the WAC is still a step down from an all-around, all-sports perspective. But not all, and not by much.

Using the most recent NCAA RPI/NET rankings, I calculated the average ranking for each conference school. In the 2021 volleyball season, Sun Belt schools averaged a ranking of 177 versus' the WAC's 178. For the current men's basketball season, the SBC is currently averaging 196, while the WAC is at 195. For the women, UTA's current conference is 217, while its future home is 225.

The spring sports are markedly different. In 2020, the Sun Belt averaged 137, while the WAC was 203. There's a greater disparity in softball, with the SBC averaging a 101 RPI, while the WAC averages a 183. 

In two sports UTA doesn't have, women's soccer and men's, there's only a slight difference. For women, SBC was 155, while the WAC is 197. For the men, it's 76 to 118.

Now, while this is current, the meaning is going to be a little deceiving. When UTA moves, the effect will change the rankings. UTA's current numbers are based largely on the conference they play in, so changing out Troy for New Mexico State on the schedule will alter UTA's ranking, regardless of the conference. Also, not easily translatable is what happens next year when two schools leave the Sun Belt, one or four join, while three schools enter the WAC and one leaves. That same principle applies to the current SBC men's soccer rankings as the schools I averaged play in three different conferences, but it was the best head-to-head comparison I could do.

Looking over the numbers, I see a highly positive item pop up. The WAC is a better basketball conference, by the barest margins. Of course, the Sun Belt seems to have put all its eggs in one basket for football, so that isn't all that surprising. I think adding UTA to the WAC on the women's side with their current coach and her successes would boost the WAC and lower the SBC, making that a wash. So, in two of UTA's premiere sports, UTA is making a lateral move. Now, ultimately, the WAC will be hurt after New Mexico State leaves, at least on the men's side. The Aggies are currently leading the WAC with a 78 NET.

However, Chicago State is exiting the WAC, where they are at 333 NET, out of 358. They are last or near last in the WAC and near last in the NCAA in virtually every sport. That's their history as well. That alone is addition by subtraction.

So, despite the unknown of what the new schools will contribute as far as the rankings go, the move is not going to have a negative impact on the winter team sports. The spring, however, is a different story. However, UTA has made zero NCAA tournaments in the diamond sports and softball made won NIT-equivalent appearance, winning the title in 2019. Maybe they have a chance to be competitive and earn that berth.

In the fall, UTA comes out even, as they only sponsor volleyball. I included soccer as a further comparison of the conferences, and UTA has been mentioning adding the women's sport for decades and the men would have a home, should the department make a move in that direction.

There's a perception that the Sun Belt is better, but a look at the numbers show that's not as clear cut as believed.

As counterintuitive as it sounds from a few years ago, there's also a stability with the WAC that a lot of conferences don't have. There are 13 schools that are booked for the WAC beyond the foreseeable future. Conferences like the Ohio Valley or Mid-Eastern Athletic have not fared well in the current conference affiliation round. A loss of another school or two could spell the end of that conference. The Mavericks old home saw the defections and could only add one University. UTA maintains access to an autobid in all the sports they offer. The Sun Belt is in no danger of losing that bid, but other conferences UTA could have gone to are.

With all that said, there's a huge plus in the move. Closer rivals and schools. 

In the Sun Belt, UTA has developed a great rival in Texas State. That distance is 3.5 hours south. From there, University of Louisiana-Monroe is 4.5 hours east, University of Louisiana is six hours southeast and Arkansas State is seven hours northeast. It wouldn't get better if UTA stayed as only Southern Mississippi is a new school not in east at 8.5 miles. The remaining West Division schools will be in Alabama are 9.5 and 12 hours. 

That is hard to develop rivalries. I personally enjoyed renewing a conference with some of the older Southland schools, but it wasn't universally shared with Maverick fans as a whole. The only school in the Sun Belt that carried a higher-than-normal attendance was Texas State.

That will be the biggest casualty of UTA's move. Mavericks versus Texas State usually turned into the highest attended game of season for either school in most sports. When I was a student two decades ago, I considered Stephen F. Austin our rival. But due primarily to our lack of football, that wasn't reciprocated by anyone in the conference. We were a placeholder on the schedule. Our biggest, and only, reciprocated rival then was North Texas and they wouldn't play us. 

But Maverick games with Texas State also carried meaningful outcomes. In some cases, standings were on the line. In the most memorable defeat, the Bobcats ended the best season ever of the men's basketball history in 2017 in the conference tournament semi-finals. That defeat cost UTA a chance of an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament. A loss in the finals may have allowed that to happen if the circumstances were right. We also had won 14 of the previous 16 games against the Bobcats, while winning the next five. We returned the favor a couple of years later when a record crowd at Strahan was silenced after UTA used two OT's to walk away with a win. The following year, Texas State beat UTA at College Park Center in 3 OT's in an ESPN 2 televised game. I believe that was the first time UTA hosted a nationally televised game. 

There have been big moments in other sports too. UTA met Texas State met in a conference final in volleyball, played spoiler in UTA's bid for Sun Belt West Division title in baseball, while UTA has done the same in ruining their softball title hopes. Texas State and UTA have won 23 combined track titles, out of a possible 48 conference crowns.

My hope is that we schedule each other in as many non-conference games as possible. Though realistically, the passion will cool regardless, as much of it was built on the conference rivalry. But, for a decade, it was fun to watch it grow into something legit.

Though in the Sun Belt, that is the only true rivalry that's going to be missing. Geography is the greatest ingredient in growing a rivalry. Maybe not the only, but it is the most common. UTA moves to a new conference where there are much closer opponents. Tarleton State is 1.5 hours west from campus. Abilene Christian is 2.5 hours west. Sam Houston State (south) and Stephen F. Austin State (east) is three hours. These four schools are closer to UTA than Texas State. New member Incarnate Word is four hours south. Lamar is five hours southeast. Texas Rio Grande Valley is the longest Texas school at 7.5 hours south. 

Regardless of anything else, UTA's Division is remarkably closer. That allows for more road trips in both directions, which has the potential to increase attendance for all schools, but especially at UTA. We may not see the individual game bump we saw with Texas State, but I suspect we will see a bump in total average right away. Maybe there will be some meaningful games along the way that gets us there. Maybe seeing old logos will rekindle something. As mentioned, I used to consider the Lumberjacks UTA's rival, and since we saw a slight increase in attendance at Texas Hall when they came, other fans and students did as well. Maybe that will burn bright again, especially with Sam Houston leaving for Conference USA in 2023. There are also many alums from these schools in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, who may stop by for a game or two. The amount of alums from WAC schools are much more than what would be here locally from other Sun Belt schools. There's likely to be a large amount of family members of opponent athletes living near UTA as well.

While maintaining regional, geographic rivals, being in the WAC also spreads the UT Arlington brand to other parts of the State and the Country. With three teams in Utah, one near Los Angelses, California, another in Seattle, Washington and the remaining school in Pheonix, Arizona, UTA will play in a varied area. Now, there is varying degrees of support, particularly in the larger metros, but it still puts UTA in different areas and new eyeballs.

When UTA announced the Mavericks were relocating to the WAC, they issued a release sent to fans and the press, unsurprisingly. However, one part surprised me and stood out.

However, we are excited about what the future of UTA Athletics holds. A change in conferences and a Master Plan (with the potential of new facilities and added teams to our department) are just a couple of the many highlights we have to look forward to in 2022 and beyond!

Reading that leaves a lot to the imagination, but at the same time, gives intentions of what's to come. I find it interesting that they included both new programs and facility upgrades. Since there are a lot of options to all those, as well as this post is running long, I'll use that to tease future installments of the Maverick Rambler.

As it is, the move to the WAC is a push in a worst-case scenario. There is a drop off in competition in some sports, but not in the winter where it matters for UTA the most. The increased geographic rivalries have made the move very intriguing for me. If UTA can increase the attendance, it generates a whole range of different options for increasing UTA's competitiveness. In the end, that's what helps the most in any move. Does it increase UTA's ability to be competitive? I think that's very likely in a new home. The current conference reshuffling could have put UTA in a bad space, but in the end, the Mavericks have come out alright.